NBA game predictions
Win probabilities from our Elo model, frozen before each game.
Model accuracy
Scoring starts after the first predicted games are played.
Backtest — how elo-v2 would have done
Each past game predicted only with the ratings available before it (no hindsight). Live results above are the reference.
| Season | Games | Correct picks | Brier score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | 170 | 65.3% | 0.208 |
| 2025-26 | 1322 | 68.4% | 0.208 |
| 2024-25 | 1321 | 65.7% | 0.214 |
| 2023-24 | 1319 | 65.3% | 0.214 |
| 2022-23 | 1320 | 63.3% | 0.229 |
| 2021-22 | 1323 | 64.8% | 0.223 |
| 2020-21 | 1171 | 61.6% | 0.229 |
| 2019-20 | 1143 | 64.1% | 0.221 |
| 2018-19 | 1312 | 64.6% | 0.214 |
| 2017-18 | 1312 | 65.6% | 0.214 |
| 2016-17 | 1309 | 64.9% | 0.218 |
Upcoming NBA games
Raptors @ 76ersThu, 7:00 PM ESTModel76ers 65%
Pistons @ WizardsThu, 7:00 PM ESTModelPistons 81%
Mavericks @ TimberwolvesThu, 8:00 PM ESTModelTimberwolves 80%
Hornets @ SunsThu, 9:00 PM ESTModelSuns 63%
Knicks @ PacersFri, 7:00 PM ESTModelKnicks 81%
Bucks @ MagicFri, 7:00 PM ESTModelMagic 81%
Cavaliers @ HeatFri, 8:00 PM ESTModelCavaliers 52%
Hawks @ BullsFri, 8:00 PM ESTModelHawks 66%
Grizzlies @ PelicansFri, 8:00 PM ESTModelPelicans 53%
Jazz @ RocketsFri, 8:30 PM ESTModelRockets 91%
Warriors @ SpursFri, 9:30 PM ESTModelSpurs 82%
Trail Blazers @ KingsFri, 10:00 PM ESTModelTrail Blazers 74%
Thunder @ ClippersFri, 10:30 PM ESTModelThunder 65%
Nuggets @ PelicansSat, 7:00 PM ESTModelNuggets 69%Mavericks @ CavaliersSat, 7:30 PM ESTModelCavaliers 76%Pistons @ HeatSat, 8:00 PM ESTModelPistons 61%
Nets @ GrizzliesSat, 8:00 PM ESTModelGrizzlies 70%Bulls @ TimberwolvesSat, 8:00 PM ESTModelTimberwolves 88%Pacers @ 76ersSun, 1:00 PM ESTModel76ers 82%
Lakers @ SunsSun, 4:00 PM ESTModelLakers 57%Hornets @ ClippersSun, 4:30 PM ESTModelClippers 59%Spurs @ JazzSun, 5:00 PM ESTModelSpurs 89%
Mavericks @ CelticsSun, 6:00 PM ESTModelCeltics 84%Knicks @ RaptorsSun, 6:00 PM ESTModelKnicks 64%Rockets @ WizardsSun, 7:00 PM ESTModelRockets 79%Hawks @ BucksSun, 8:00 PM ESTModelHawks 70%Thunder @ KingsSun, 9:00 PM ESTModelThunder 81%Magic @ CelticsMon, 7:00 PM ESTModelCeltics 80%Bulls @ CavaliersMon, 7:00 PM ESTModelCavaliers 85%Grizzlies @ WizardsMon, 7:00 PM ESTModelGrizzlies 55%76ers @ NetsMon, 7:30 PM ESTModel76ers 69%Rockets @ HeatMon, 7:30 PM ESTModelRockets 58%Trail Blazers @ TimberwolvesMon, 8:00 PM ESTModelTimberwolves 66%Warriors @ PelicansMon, 8:00 PM ESTModelWarriors 63%Suns @ NuggetsMon, 9:00 PM ESTModelNuggets 70%Knicks @ RaptorsTue, 7:30 PM ESTModelKnicks 64%Trail Blazers @ TimberwolvesTue, 8:00 PM ESTModelTimberwolves 66%Pistons @ SpursTue, 8:00 PM ESTModelSpurs 70%Jazz @ ClippersTue, 10:30 PM ESTModelClippers 81%Hornets @ LakersTue, 11:00 PM ESTModelLakers 77%Probabilities are model estimates, not certainties or betting advice. 18+ only where betting is legal — play responsibly.